Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $42,797$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,416.7}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 36.7)}}\) (asimptote \(46,416.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,490$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(183 \times 10^{0.037t}\) (doubling rate \(8.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,181.3}{1 + 10^{-0.083 (t - 33.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,181.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,507$ on 2020-04-23

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $213,024$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{207,784.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(207,784.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $22,157$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,799.2}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(21,799.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $101,617$ on 2020-04-23

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $189,973$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189,111.5}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 37.3)}}\) (asimptote \(189,111.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $25,549$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,607.0}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 38.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,607.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $106,848$ on 2020-04-23

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $159,460$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(6.71 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193,371.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 41.0)}}\) (asimptote \(193,371.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21,889$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(802 \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{22,926.2}{1 + 10^{-0.078 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(22,926.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $94,809$ on 2020-04-23

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $139,246$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.95 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.031t}\) (doubling rate \(9.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,302.1}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 39.2)}}\) (asimptote \(159,302.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $18,791$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(574 \times 10^{0.036t}\) (doubling rate \(8.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,457.1}{1 + 10^{-0.080 (t - 32.7)}}\) (asimptote \(20,457.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $119,743$ on 2020-04-23

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $35,921$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(2.03 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,947.1}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(38,947.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,192$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(221 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,377.4}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,377.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,628$ on 2020-04-23

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,755$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(636 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{21,031.2}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 43.9)}}\) (asimptote \(21,031.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,021$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(58.9 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(7.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,626.5}{1 + 10^{-0.065 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(2,626.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,184$ on 2020-04-23

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $28,496$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,024.3}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(28,024.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,549$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(78.2 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,592.3}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,592.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,347$ on 2020-04-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Iceland recovered 75%
Austria recovered 70%
Switzerland recovered 56%
Denmark recovered 40%
Germany recovered 39%
Malta recovered 32%
Andorra recovered 30%
Croatia recovered 17%
Czechia recovered 11%

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,789$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(227 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,802.8}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,802.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.28 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11.5}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 24.7)}}\) (asimptote \(11.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $270$ on 2020-04-23

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $15,002$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,602.4}{1 + 10^{-0.090 (t - 27.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,602.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $522$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(34.3 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{539.4}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 28.1)}}\) (asimptote \(539.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,786$ on 2020-04-23

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,271$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(684 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,084.3}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 34.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,084.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $394$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(34 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{404.5}{1 + 10^{-0.074 (t - 25.2)}}\) (asimptote \(404.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,304$ on 2020-04-23

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $153,129$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(1.29 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{151,399.7}{1 + 10^{-0.071 (t - 31.8)}}\) (asimptote \(151,399.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,575$ on 2020-04-23

Best fit exponential: \(255 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,317.9}{1 + 10^{-0.069 (t - 30.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,317.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,254$ on 2020-04-23